Yellow Pages will survive the shift but some immediate changes must be made. On January 10, the analyst firm Kelsey Group released a report that identified what they termed as “Key Local Media Trends” to watch out for in the year ahead. The report touched on local search, interactive local media, vertical directories, classified media markets, and, most importantly, the immediate future of the Yellow Pages.

With many economists predicting a slowdown in the general economy, the Kelsey Group analysts believe 2008 will be a pivotal year for the global Yellow Pages industry. A few excerpts from the glaring report:

* Major Metro Markets Lead the Revolution
More publishers operating in large metro markets will proactively institute opt-out plans for consumers to reduce distribution to the ones who really want the print directory, something publishers have historically resisted. Also look for initiatives to radically rescope major metro books or introduce new formats.

* Expanding Online-Only Expansion
In the coming year, we expect to see more publishers using their Internet offerings to expand into new markets. In some cases this will lead to new print directories, but more often we expect to see publishers establishing a sales presence outside their home markets or franchise territory with no intention of launching a print book.

According to The Kelsey Report managing editor, Charles Laughlin, “the key question is whether the print product will emerge as healthily as it has after previous downturns. In the past, small and medium-sized businesses have protected their print Yellow Pages investment at the expense of other media. Given the structural changes in the local ad market, we believe the next downturn will favor media choices that are more flexible and provide a lower cost per lead than print directories, which would signal a profound shift.”

Peter Krasilovsky, program director of The Kelsey Group, also added that “the accelerated rate of attrition from ’07 should be a wake-up call to Yellow Pages publishers. While industry-changing developments don’t typically happen in such a short time frame, publishers will need to give up their “sense of complacency” to avoid being blindsided by the impact of their rapidly diminishing share of voice in ’08.”

It is hard to deny that there is a lot of talk about ad dollars going from traditional to new media. But, in my view, the industry is still attempting to adapt to the changing consumer. And I’m confident that the Yellow Pages will succeed in this process of adaptation.
In Canada, there are already new competitors in the directory landscape, such as CanPages and CanWest. At the moment, CanPages is the main competitor to YPG, with approximately 80 directories in Canada, some of which have become the directory of choice in a market.

I believe that innovation, more than anything else, is what is needed in Canada, and in the entire Yellow Pages industry in general. When I say innovation,  I am referring to new products, sales approaches, and management styles. That, and good old-fashioned marketing and promotion that must come from the heart.

The Kelsey analysts may have their opinions, but the Yellow Pages directories have fared well in recent economic downturns as they themselves stated and I am confident that we will continue to do so. AT&T and Yellow Book, for example, are faring quite well as they surf the new media wave.

In my view, the Kelsey analysts are basing their bold forecasts on what is merely temporary, momentary shift. Understanding the new needs of the changing consumer is no walk in the park, so to speak, and there will be a few potholes to dodge in this easily-mendable road to adaptation. Innovation is the key, and the temporary lack of it can be swiftly rectified. The wake-up call is well underway.